Check your Y-belt plastic gears for built-up deposits. I use an old dental pick to keep them cleaned out.
I'd scuff the MDF in one of two ways. First, if you have a drum sander, run it through with 36 grit to create a uniform pattern. Second, if you don't have a drum sander, cut light kerfs on the table saw in a grid pattern every half inch or so. Either one of those options may help with getting the mdf to grip better.
FWIW, I never got a round hole out of the CW with the standard QC. The rock chuck makes a big difference reducing bit runout.
To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk.
Thomas A. Edison